Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
Ends: Oct 1, 2026, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 09:07 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T21:57:01.726Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T02:59:10.778Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T06:59:32.667Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T11:59:46.159Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T15:59:50.625Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T20:54:02.138Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T01:55:10.285Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T05:59:31.644Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:59:40.411Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T14:55:40.596Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T19:55:14.340Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T23:57:41.574Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:57:35.996Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T08:59:32.609Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T13:59:45.617Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T17:53:23.749Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T22:59:50.685Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T02:58:20.039Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T07:59:25.788Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T11:58:29.275Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T16:56:10.552Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T21:59:44.142Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T01:56:22.541Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T06:55:44.764Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T10:34:54.258Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T15:04:35.744Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T19:36:53.628Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:05:41.890Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T04:37:36.929Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:07:47.336Z | 1.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.