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Sports · POLYMARKET · CLOSED

UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 04:12 UTCResult: QUILLAN SALKILLDResolved: Aug 9, 2026, 02:55 UTC

VERDICTNO PUBLISHED ANALYSIS

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET MATEUSZ GAMROT 0.0%MARX FAIR MATEUSZ GAMROT -
MATEUSZ GAMROT probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%13%25%38%50%
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Aug 05, 01:57 AMAug 06, 02:31 AMAug 07, 03:04 AMAug 08, 03:38 AMAug 09, 04:12 AM UTC

MATEUSZ GAMROT probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T06:59:48.261Z42.5%-—
2026-08-07T07:56:16.166Z42.5%-—
2026-08-07T22:59:55.329Z43.5%-—
2026-08-07T23:56:05.576Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T00:59:44.839Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T01:56:12.561Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T02:59:12.282Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T04:01:14.301Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T05:03:32.295Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T06:06:02.765Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T07:09:57.980Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T08:12:05.343Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T09:15:39.687Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T10:17:55.865Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T11:20:15.709Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T12:23:49.497Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T13:31:22.116Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T14:34:21.646Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T15:36:00.340Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T16:39:49.962Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T17:43:27.500Z44.5%-—
2026-08-08T18:45:28.700Z43.0%-—
2026-08-08T19:48:48.970Z43.5%-—
2026-08-08T20:55:53.641Z43.5%-—
2026-08-08T21:54:44.057Z43.5%-—
2026-08-08T23:01:46.115Z43.5%-—
2026-08-09T00:04:54.342Z42.5%-—
2026-08-09T01:07:17.578Z42.5%-—
2026-08-09T02:10:05.577Z41.0%-—
2026-08-09T04:12:33.022Z0.0%-—

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Mateusz Gamrot" if Mateusz Gamrot is officially declared the winner of the fight against Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Quillan Salkilld" if Quillan Salkilld is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETWHY NO ANALYSISSTRATEGY