UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 04:12 UTCResult: QUILLAN SALKILLDResolved: Aug 9, 2026, 02:55 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
MATEUSZ GAMROT probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T21:59:53.105Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T22:05:04.886Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T22:15:23.885Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T22:25:39.591Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T22:35:59.293Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T22:41:04.938Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T22:51:13.194Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:01:46.115Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:13:12.045Z | 44.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:18:17.978Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:28:39.527Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:39:04.328Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:44:17.731Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T23:54:31.431Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:04:54.342Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:15:11.106Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:20:19.572Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:30:49.248Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:41:04.790Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:51:19.284Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T00:57:01.143Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T01:07:17.578Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T01:18:34.885Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T01:23:42.232Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T01:34:01.529Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T01:44:21.917Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T01:54:40.569Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T02:04:54.817Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T02:10:05.577Z | 41.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T04:12:33.022Z | 0.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Mateusz Gamrot" if Mateusz Gamrot is officially declared the winner of the fight against Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Quillan Salkilld" if Quillan Salkilld is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.