Bitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 04:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 05:28 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 10, 2026, 04:01 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T02:06:07.040Z | 49.5% | 88.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:07:45.352Z | 49.5% | 91.2% | +41.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:09:52.003Z | 49.5% | 88.7% | +39.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:16:00.529Z | 49.5% | 89.7% | +40.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:18:46.366Z | 49.5% | 84.8% | +35.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:22:53.694Z | 49.5% | 72.0% | +22.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:25:41.951Z | 49.5% | 76.7% | +27.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:31:44.269Z | 49.5% | 77.9% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:35:52.569Z | 49.5% | 80.9% | +31.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:39:55.744Z | 49.5% | 83.2% | +33.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:45:55.037Z | 49.5% | 97.5% | +48.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:48:49.930Z | 49.5% | 96.0% | +46.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:52:55.836Z | 49.5% | 95.1% | +45.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:54:54.614Z | 49.5% | 93.4% | +43.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T02:56:19.825Z | 49.5% | 93.4% | +43.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:02:57.203Z | 49.5% | 94.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:06:50.680Z | 49.5% | 93.7% | +44.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:10:54.694Z | 49.5% | 94.3% | +44.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:17:50.008Z | 49.5% | 79.8% | +30.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:19:48.792Z | 49.5% | 94.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:21:49.754Z | 49.5% | 95.7% | +46.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:25:17.370Z | 49.5% | 97.6% | +48.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:29:00.682Z | 49.5% | 98.4% | +48.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:33:17.296Z | 49.5% | 96.7% | +47.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:34:21.999Z | 49.5% | 95.4% | +45.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:37:16.817Z | 49.5% | 98.8% | +49.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:40:57.487Z | 49.5% | 99.4% | +49.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:47:48.419Z | 49.5% | 99.8% | +50.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T03:51:52.668Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T04:01:26.232Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 04:01 AM | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 03:51 AM | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 03:47 AM | 49.5% | 99.8% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 03:40 AM | 49.5% | 99.4% | +50 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 03:37 AM | 49.5% | 98.8% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 03:34 AM | 49.5% | 95.4% | +46 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 03:33 AM | 49.5% | 96.7% | +47 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 10, 03:29 AM | 49.5% | 98.4% | +49 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.