Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T08:08:49.232Z | 11.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:11:30.820Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:17:31.033Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:21:30.974Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:31:32.047Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:51:46.982Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:12:06.848Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:27:21.936Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:41:31.141Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:45:30.939Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:55:30.916Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:03:30.794Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:09:31.157Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:16:32.150Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:20:30.863Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:26:30.940Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:30.879Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:31.110Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:20:31.129Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:26:32.096Z | 4.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:02.353Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:51:32.448Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:59:30.833Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:03:31.090Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:10:30.893Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:13:30.875Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:21:32.429Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:25:33.107Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:36:31.053Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:11.473Z | 3.7% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.