Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T11:51:31.886Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:51:32.448Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:30.984Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:55:30.967Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:56:32.493Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:59:30.833Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:00:30.959Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:32.082Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:33.811Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:03:31.090Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:35.553Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:08:32.851Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:09:30.996Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:10:30.893Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:11:31.021Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:12:32.310Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:13:30.875Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:14:31.038Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:15:31.246Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:16:31.012Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:21:32.429Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:22:35.448Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:24:07.255Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:24:36.053Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:25:33.107Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:26:31.056Z | 3.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:30:30.999Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:31:31.208Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:36:31.053Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:11.473Z | 3.7% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.