Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T08:11:30.820Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:17:31.033Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:21:30.974Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:31:32.047Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:46:43.925Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:07:01.952Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:27:21.936Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:40:32.149Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:44:30.993Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:54:34.903Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:01:31.905Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:05:30.961Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:11:30.944Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:19:32.342Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:24:31.109Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:36:35.784Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:32.287Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:06:32.394Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:21:32.220Z | 4.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:35:30.866Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:45:31.050Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:30.984Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:00:30.959Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:35.553Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:10:30.893Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:14:31.038Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:22:35.448Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:25:33.107Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:36:31.053Z | 3.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:11.473Z | 3.7% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.