Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 11:56 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T07:11:32.191Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:20:30.885Z | 10.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:36:42.024Z | 11.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:48:46.822Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:00:31.890Z | 11.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:06:32.016Z | 10.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:10:30.787Z | 11.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:16:30.816Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:19:30.803Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:25:30.949Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:41:36.933Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:56:51.974Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:17:11.929Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:36:30.821Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:42:31.023Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:46:30.853Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:56:31.008Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:03:30.794Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:09:31.157Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:17:32.103Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:21:32.292Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:26:30.940Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:30.879Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:31.110Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:16:42.908Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:26:32.096Z | 4.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:42:02.353Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:51:31.886Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:56:32.493Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:56:41.176Z | 4.7% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.