Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?
Ends: Oct 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 20, 2026, 12:28 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19T04:57:49.687Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T05:58:18.203Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T07:58:59.465Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T09:35:55.217Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T10:20:01.127Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T11:09:41.970Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T12:14:40.810Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T13:17:21.230Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T14:18:52.155Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T15:22:26.085Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T16:30:05.406Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T17:30:16.154Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T18:32:09.062Z | 46.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T19:35:40.907Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T20:43:22.275Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T21:42:29.164Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T23:02:27.149Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T00:13:15.333Z | 44.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T01:11:09.946Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T02:23:00.227Z | 37.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T02:59:34.225Z | 45.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T04:04:30.746Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T05:10:40.950Z | 56.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T06:12:22.777Z | 39.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T07:15:32.654Z | 43.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:17:41.293Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T09:22:33.479Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T10:23:13.136Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:33:06.542Z | 26.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T12:28:52.520Z | 36.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.