Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?
Ends: Oct 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 20, 2026, 12:27 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20T07:03:41.412Z | 46.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T07:15:32.654Z | 43.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T07:26:46.437Z | 37.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T07:42:25.976Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:05:57.307Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:12:24.913Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:17:41.293Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:25:20.800Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:37:00.780Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:43:03.726Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T08:59:31.590Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T09:02:18.538Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T09:12:24.799Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T09:22:33.479Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T09:28:21.628Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T09:37:23.192Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T10:19:19.299Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T10:22:12.579Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T10:31:12.934Z | 34.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T10:40:23.013Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T10:52:16.654Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:02:18.313Z | 31.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:10:53.810Z | 33.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:18:32.018Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:33:06.542Z | 26.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:38:07.205Z | 33.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:48:45.334Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:53:47.334Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T12:24:10.392Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T12:27:06.669Z | 36.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.