Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?
Ends: Oct 20, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 20, 2026, 11:43 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19T04:57:49.687Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T09:35:55.217Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T13:09:51.633Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T17:40:22.976Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-19T22:23:13.164Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T02:59:34.225Z | 45.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T07:15:32.654Z | 43.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-20T11:43:23.588Z | 33.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 19 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 20 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.