Ethereum Up or Down on September 28?
Ends: Sep 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:15 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Sep 28, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T12:30:09.378Z | 40.0% | 32.1% | -7.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:50:04.328Z | 38.0% | 38.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:54:16.987Z | 38.0% | 43.6% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:54:49.869Z | 38.0% | 43.6% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:57:34.289Z | 38.0% | 47.1% | +9.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:01:54.454Z | 38.0% | 42.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:05:19.821Z | 38.0% | 37.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:05:40.884Z | 38.0% | 37.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:08:48.247Z | 38.0% | 42.4% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:10:57.815Z | 38.0% | 36.7% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:13:33.221Z | 38.0% | 37.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:14:50.073Z | 38.0% | 37.1% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:44:27.898Z | 38.0% | 34.8% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:06:42.947Z | 26.5% | 49.9% | +23.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:09:47.031Z | 26.5% | 42.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:18:23.191Z | 26.5% | 24.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:19:02.274Z | 26.5% | 24.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:27:23.070Z | 26.5% | 39.1% | +12.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:37:40.665Z | 26.5% | 25.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:04:49.657Z | 1.7% | 3.8% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:10:31.669Z | 1.7% | 2.7% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:14:49.246Z | 1.7% | 0.6% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:17:14.035Z | 1.7% | 0.2% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:21:16.513Z | 1.7% | 0.1% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:25:27.542Z | 1.7% | 0.3% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:25:52.113Z | 1.7% | 0.3% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:35:54.132Z | 1.7% | 0.2% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:41:34.721Z | 1.7% | 1.9% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:50:26.403Z | 1.7% | 0.6% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T16:07:12.570Z | 1.7% | 0.2% | -1.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 04:07 PM | 1.7% | 0.2% | −1.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:50 PM | 1.7% | 0.6% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:41 PM | 1.7% | 1.9% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:35 PM | 1.7% | 0.2% | −1.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:25 PM | 1.7% | 0.3% | −1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:21 PM | 1.7% | 0.1% | −1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:17 PM | 1.7% | 0.2% | −1.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:14 PM | 1.7% | 0.6% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.