Ethereum Up or Down on September 28?
Ends: Sep 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:15 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Sep 28, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T13:51:29.711Z | 46.5% | 63.3% | +16.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:07:11.169Z | 31.0% | 49.9% | +18.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:07:50.322Z | 31.0% | 49.9% | +18.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:12:29.060Z | 26.5% | 36.2% | +9.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:14:18.705Z | 26.5% | 36.2% | +9.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:17:23.199Z | 26.5% | 24.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:19:02.274Z | 26.5% | 24.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:26:28.145Z | 35.0% | 39.1% | +4.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:27:23.070Z | 35.0% | 39.1% | +4.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:35:44.849Z | 14.5% | 25.2% | +10.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:37:40.665Z | 14.5% | 25.2% | +10.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:44:40.959Z | 8.5% | 25.2% | +16.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:02:19.920Z | 4.5% | 3.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:04:49.657Z | 4.5% | 3.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:10:31.669Z | 13.3% | 2.7% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:12:01.285Z | 13.3% | 2.7% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:14:49.246Z | 13.3% | 0.6% | -12.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:19:19.515Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:20:45.427Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:23:19.626Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:25:27.542Z | 1.7% | 0.3% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:29:33.852Z | 1.7% | 0.3% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:35:54.132Z | 3.5% | 0.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:38:59.475Z | 3.5% | 1.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:41:34.721Z | 3.5% | 1.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:47:25.041Z | 2.8% | 0.6% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:50:26.403Z | 2.8% | 0.6% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T16:05:47.567Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T16:07:12.570Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T16:15:42.018Z | 0.0% | 0.2% | +0.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 04:07 PM | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:50 PM | 2.8% | 0.6% | −2.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:41 PM | 3.5% | 1.9% | −1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:35 PM | 3.5% | 0.2% | −3.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:25 PM | 1.7% | 0.3% | −1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:23 PM | 1.4% | 0.1% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:19 PM | 1.4% | 0.1% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 28, 03:14 PM | 13.3% | 0.6% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.