Ethereum Up or Down on September 28?
Ends: Sep 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 15:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T11:39:12.361Z | 11.5% | 16.4% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:05:33.900Z | 11.5% | 19.7% | +8.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:06:41.614Z | 11.5% | 19.7% | +8.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:11:05.284Z | 11.5% | 49.3% | +37.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:15:35.151Z | 11.5% | 37.5% | +26.0 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:25:25.389Z | 11.5% | 38.2% | +26.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:29:59.538Z | 11.5% | 32.1% | +20.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:45:22.005Z | 11.5% | 25.8% | +14.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:53:59.824Z | 11.5% | 43.6% | +32.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:54:33.415Z | 11.5% | 43.6% | +32.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:57:23.119Z | 11.5% | 47.1% | +35.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T12:58:51.250Z | 11.5% | 47.1% | +35.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:04:48.413Z | 11.5% | 37.3% | +25.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:05:19.821Z | 11.5% | 37.3% | +25.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:05:40.884Z | 11.5% | 37.3% | +25.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:08:48.247Z | 11.5% | 42.4% | +30.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:10:57.815Z | 11.5% | 36.7% | +25.2 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:13:33.221Z | 11.5% | 37.1% | +25.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T13:44:27.898Z | 1.4% | 34.8% | +33.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:07:50.322Z | 1.4% | 49.9% | +48.6 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:14:18.705Z | 1.4% | 36.2% | +34.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:19:02.274Z | 1.4% | 24.0% | +22.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:27:23.070Z | 1.4% | 39.1% | +37.7 pp |
| 2026-09-28T14:37:40.665Z | 1.4% | 25.2% | +23.9 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:04:49.657Z | 1.4% | 3.8% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:10:31.669Z | 1.4% | 2.7% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:14:49.246Z | 1.4% | 0.6% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:17:14.035Z | 1.4% | 0.2% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:21:16.513Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-28T15:23:45.411Z | 1.4% | 0.1% | -1.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 03:21 PM | 11.5% | 0.1% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:17 PM | 11.5% | 0.2% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:14 PM | 11.5% | 0.6% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:10 PM | 11.5% | 2.7% | −8.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 03:04 PM | 11.5% | 3.8% | −7.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 28, 02:37 PM | 11.5% | 25.2% | +14 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 28, 02:27 PM | 11.5% | 39.1% | +28 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 28, 02:19 PM | 11.5% | 24.0% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.