Dota 2: Level UP vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 15:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 11, 2026, 12:47 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LEVEL UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11T09:29:16.863Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T09:34:18.649Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T09:44:32.242Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T09:54:47.114Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T09:59:48.361Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T10:09:56.171Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T10:20:06.097Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T10:30:21.056Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T10:40:32.916Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T10:45:42.595Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T10:55:53.023Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T11:06:07.589Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T11:16:23.003Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T11:21:32.419Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T11:31:47.342Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T11:43:15.734Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T11:53:33.195Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T11:59:12.426Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T12:09:22.440Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T12:19:39.741Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T12:29:48.364Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T12:34:53.243Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T12:45:03.837Z | 0.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket final match between Level UP and Natus Vincere in the EPL Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 11 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Level UP" if Level UP win Game 1 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 1 against Level UP. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.