Ethereum Up or Down on July 28?
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 16:53 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Jul 28, 2026, 16:48 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T15:22:37.478Z | 5.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:24:30.909Z | 5.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:25:33.754Z | 5.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:26:30.991Z | 5.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:28:31.078Z | 26.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:29:30.992Z | 26.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:30:31.277Z | 26.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:31:31.071Z | 26.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:33:31.629Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:38:33.255Z | 5.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:41:36.567Z | 5.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:42:36.165Z | 5.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:45:17.268Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:46:15.134Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:47:15.035Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:15.179Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:15.248Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:58:17.031Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:59:15.284Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:00:16.056Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:02:16.463Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:03:15.199Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:08:18.607Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:13:21.621Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:23:37.823Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:28:41.463Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:33:47.612Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:38:51.363Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:48:56.677Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:53:25.545Z | 0.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.