Ethereum Up or Down on July 28?
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 16:53 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Jul 28, 2026, 16:48 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T12:27:32.730Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:32:30.991Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:45:31.345Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:37.828Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:32.605Z | 6.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:06:30.984Z | 6.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:14:30.979Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:21:30.881Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:27:30.940Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:32:32.107Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:39:52.150Z | 2.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:46:30.961Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:54:05.631Z | 1.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:00:30.980Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:05:31.102Z | 1.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:10:30.865Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:24:06.343Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:29:30.949Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:45:32.863Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:54:32.843Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:02:31.197Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:10:30.962Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:17:32.279Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:27:31.182Z | 5.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:33:31.629Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:45:17.268Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:15.248Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:02:16.463Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:28:41.463Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:53:25.545Z | 0.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.