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Crypto · POLYMARKET · CLOSED

Ethereum Up or Down on July 28?

Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 16:59 UTCResult: DOWNResolved: Jul 28, 2026, 16:48 UTC

VERDICTNO PUBLISHED ANALYSIS

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET UP 0.0%MARX FAIR UP -
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 28, 04:01 PMJul 28, 04:14 PMJul 28, 04:27 PMJul 28, 04:40 PMJul 28, 04:53 PM UTC

UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T16:01:15.448Z0.3%-—
2026-07-28T16:02:16.463Z0.3%-—
2026-07-28T16:03:15.199Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:08:18.607Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:13:21.621Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:18:26.372Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:23:37.823Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:28:41.463Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:33:47.612Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:38:51.363Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:43:54.759Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:48:56.677Z0.1%-—
2026-07-28T16:53:25.545Z0.0%-—

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETWHY NO ANALYSISSTRATEGY