Ethereum Up or Down on July 28?
Ends: Jul 28, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 16:21 UTCResolved: Jul 28, 2026, 16:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T12:26:31.056Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:32:30.991Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:44:31.521Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:51:31.004Z | 5.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:00:31.100Z | 6.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:06:30.984Z | 6.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:13:31.915Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:20:30.964Z | 6.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:26:31.046Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:32:32.107Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:38:42.005Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:45:32.973Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:52:34.522Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T13:59:30.938Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:04:30.891Z | 1.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:09:31.023Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:22:37.857Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:27:35.630Z | 0.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:41:42.539Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T14:49:30.916Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:00:31.040Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:09:00.555Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:16:33.550Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:26:30.991Z | 5.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:31:31.071Z | 26.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:42:36.165Z | 5.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T15:52:15.141Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:15.448Z | 0.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:18:26.372Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:21:40.079Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Jul 27 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 28 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.