Ethereum Up or Down on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 12:36 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T09:10:48.480Z | 93.0% | 96.4% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:19:37.462Z | 93.0% | 95.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:29:28.774Z | 93.0% | 94.9% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:37:38.978Z | 93.0% | 95.5% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:47:44.410Z | 93.0% | 94.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:51:31.631Z | 93.0% | 95.3% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:00:45.445Z | 93.0% | 95.4% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:09:40.685Z | 93.0% | 94.1% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:17:39.912Z | 93.0% | 92.7% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:23:38.627Z | 93.0% | 94.6% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:31:37.544Z | 93.0% | 95.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:37:36.643Z | 93.0% | 94.5% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:47:48.305Z | 93.0% | 94.7% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:51:43.394Z | 93.0% | 94.9% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:00:40.364Z | 93.0% | 93.8% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:04:36.046Z | 93.0% | 91.8% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:08:32.910Z | 93.0% | 91.5% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:18:40.358Z | 93.0% | 96.4% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:22:40.625Z | 93.0% | 96.9% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:29:34.444Z | 93.0% | 96.7% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:37:39.223Z | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:45:51.186Z | 93.0% | 98.2% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:55:46.061Z | 93.0% | 97.9% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:05:42.914Z | 93.0% | 97.4% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:38.574Z | 93.0% | 96.5% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:16:39.491Z | 93.0% | 96.5% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:20:44.222Z | 93.0% | 96.8% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:28:40.005Z | 93.0% | 97.9% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:34:39.287Z | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:36:04.390Z | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 06, 12:34 PM | 50.0% | 97.8% | +48 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:28 PM | 50.0% | 97.9% | +48 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:20 PM | 50.0% | 96.8% | +47 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:16 PM | 50.0% | 96.5% | +47 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:09 PM | 50.0% | 96.5% | +46 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:05 PM | 50.0% | 97.4% | +47 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 11:55 AM | 50.0% | 97.9% | +48 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 11:45 AM | 50.0% | 98.2% | +48 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.