Ethereum Up or Down on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 12:36 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T12:05:42.914Z | 93.5% | 97.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:05:43.976Z | 93.5% | 97.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:06:17.850Z | 93.5% | 97.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:07:13.706Z | 93.5% | 96.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:07:35.179Z | 93.5% | 96.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:07:35.666Z | 93.5% | 96.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:08:14.306Z | 92.5% | 96.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:38.574Z | 92.5% | 96.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:39.210Z | 92.5% | 96.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:13:16.950Z | 92.5% | 96.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:14:43.820Z | 92.5% | 96.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:16:38.852Z | 92.5% | 96.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:16:39.491Z | 92.5% | 96.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:18:26.781Z | 92.5% | 96.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:18:41.689Z | 92.5% | 96.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:20:43.271Z | 92.5% | 96.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:20:44.222Z | 92.5% | 96.8% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:22:38.636Z | 92.5% | 97.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:23:17.022Z | 92.5% | 97.7% | +5.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:24:19.488Z | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:24:36.846Z | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:24:44.044Z | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:28:40.005Z | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:29:21.319Z | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:30:39.807Z | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:32:37.311Z | 93.0% | 97.9% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:34:22.622Z | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:34:38.014Z | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:34:39.287Z | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:36:04.390Z | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 06, 12:34 PM | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:34 PM | 93.0% | 97.8% | +4.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:32 PM | 93.0% | 97.9% | +4.9 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:30 PM | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:28 PM | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:24 PM | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:24 PM | 93.5% | 97.9% | +4.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 12:22 PM | 92.5% | 97.7% | +5.2 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.