Ethereum Up or Down on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 11:47 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T08:23:39.908Z | 92.5% | 95.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:34:40.401Z | 92.5% | 95.9% | +3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:38:41.184Z | 92.5% | 95.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:46:41.649Z | 92.5% | 96.6% | +4.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:54:36.436Z | 92.5% | 98.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:02:46.881Z | 92.5% | 97.2% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:10:48.480Z | 92.5% | 96.4% | +3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:19:37.462Z | 92.5% | 95.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:25:39.185Z | 92.5% | 96.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:33:39.844Z | 94.5% | 94.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:43:10.646Z | 94.5% | 95.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:49:38.924Z | 94.5% | 95.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:00:44.602Z | 94.5% | 95.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:05:35.662Z | 94.5% | 94.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:12:58.026Z | 94.5% | 93.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:21:39.901Z | 94.5% | 95.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:25:42.380Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:33:36.094Z | 94.5% | 94.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:45:36.621Z | 94.5% | 94.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:49:39.974Z | 94.5% | 95.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:53:34.283Z | 94.5% | 94.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:00:41.585Z | 94.5% | 93.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:04:37.051Z | 94.5% | 91.8% | -2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:10:51.069Z | 94.5% | 93.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:18:40.358Z | 94.5% | 96.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:22:40.625Z | 94.5% | 96.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:29:34.444Z | 94.5% | 96.7% | +2.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:35:43.755Z | 94.5% | 97.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:45:51.186Z | 94.5% | 98.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:47:39.615Z | 94.5% | 98.2% | +3.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 06, 11:45 AM | 92.5% | 98.2% | +5.7 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 11:35 AM | 92.5% | 97.8% | +5.3 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 11:29 AM | 92.5% | 96.7% | +4.2 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 11:22 AM | 92.5% | 96.9% | +4.4 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 11:18 AM | 92.5% | 96.4% | +3.9 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 06, 11:10 AM | 92.5% | 93.2% | +0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 11:04 AM | 92.5% | 91.8% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 11:00 AM | 92.5% | 93.8% | +1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.