Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 4AM ET
Ends: Aug 20, 2026, 09:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 20, 2026, 10:18 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 20, 2026, 09:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20T07:17:09.975Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:17:14.921Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:32:55.459Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:34:26.585Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:34:27.504Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:37:59.055Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:38:42.643Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:40:55.380Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:40:57.153Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:43:22.127Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T07:45:21.569Z | 48.0% | 100.0% | +52.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:06:31.172Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:06:46.463Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:08:25.055Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:08:26.358Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:10:47.194Z | 76.0% | 100.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:12:55.442Z | 76.0% | 100.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:14:29.539Z | 76.0% | 100.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:16:16.832Z | 76.0% | 100.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:33:00.376Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:33:35.835Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:35:09.221Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:36:35.850Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:37:51.712Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:39:55.222Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T08:43:12.994Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-20T09:06:10.276Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T09:06:13.269Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T09:16:35.660Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-20T09:31:31.450Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 09:06 AM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 08:43 AM | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 08:39 AM | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 08:37 AM | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 08:35 AM | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 08:33 AM | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 20, 08:16 AM | 76.0% | 100.0% | +24 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 20, 08:14 AM | 76.0% | 100.0% | +24 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.