Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 30, 2026, 16:27 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 30, 2026, 16:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29T17:51:17.799Z | 50.5% | 49.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-29T18:45:08.647Z | 69.5% | 65.4% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-09-29T18:48:17.626Z | 69.5% | 65.4% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-09-29T19:41:50.953Z | 64.5% | 60.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-09-29T19:44:02.228Z | 64.5% | 60.7% | -3.8 pp |
| 2026-09-29T20:50:49.725Z | 69.5% | 60.7% | -8.8 pp |
| 2026-09-29T21:55:44.170Z | 63.5% | 61.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-29T21:59:50.824Z | 63.5% | 61.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-29T22:43:31.288Z | 67.5% | 64.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-09-29T22:46:17.228Z | 67.5% | 64.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-09-29T23:54:02.765Z | 70.5% | 68.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-09-29T23:57:03.090Z | 70.5% | 68.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-09-30T00:56:46.995Z | 60.5% | 58.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T00:57:18.440Z | 60.5% | 58.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T01:57:08.368Z | 63.0% | 58.4% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T02:59:31.075Z | 63.0% | 58.4% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T03:54:25.632Z | 58.5% | 63.2% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T05:40:31.169Z | 64.5% | 63.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T05:40:42.969Z | 64.5% | 63.2% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T06:59:52.754Z | 48.5% | 63.2% | +14.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T07:58:25.935Z | 63.5% | 63.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T08:59:36.603Z | 48.0% | 89.8% | +41.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:54:28.508Z | 72.5% | 89.8% | +17.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:55:26.182Z | 82.0% | 89.8% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:04:22.454Z | 82.0% | 89.8% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:20:46.729Z | 84.5% | 89.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-09-30T13:40:46.163Z | 94.5% | 89.8% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T14:58:03.963Z | 96.3% | 89.8% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T15:56:19.636Z | 100.0% | 89.8% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T16:27:23.320Z | 100.0% | 89.8% | -10.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 12:04 PM | 82.0% | 89.8% | +7.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 30, 05:40 AM | 64.5% | 63.2% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 30, 12:57 AM | 60.5% | 58.4% | −2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 11:54 PM | 70.5% | 68.3% | −2.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 10:43 PM | 67.5% | 64.1% | −3.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 29, 09:59 PM | 63.5% | 61.0% | −2.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 07:44 PM | 64.5% | 60.7% | −3.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 29, 06:45 PM | 69.5% | 65.4% | −4.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.