Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 30, 2026, 16:27 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 30, 2026, 16:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29T04:50:56.474Z | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-29T08:58:41.287Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-29T12:59:47.337Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-29T16:57:47.340Z | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-29T17:51:17.799Z | 48.5% | 49.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-29T18:45:08.647Z | 48.5% | 65.4% | +16.9 pp |
| 2026-09-29T19:44:02.228Z | 63.5% | 60.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-09-29T21:55:44.170Z | 63.5% | 61.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-29T21:59:50.824Z | 63.5% | 61.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-09-29T22:43:31.288Z | 63.5% | 64.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-29T23:54:02.765Z | 63.5% | 68.3% | +4.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T00:57:18.440Z | 63.0% | 58.4% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T01:57:08.368Z | 63.0% | 58.4% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T05:40:31.169Z | 48.5% | 63.2% | +14.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T06:59:52.754Z | 48.5% | 63.2% | +14.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:55:26.182Z | 82.0% | 89.8% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:04:22.454Z | 82.0% | 89.8% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T15:56:19.636Z | 100.0% | 89.8% | -10.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 12:04 PM | 82.0% | 89.8% | +7.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 30, 05:40 AM | 48.5% | 63.2% | +15 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 30, 12:57 AM | 63.0% | 58.4% | −4.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 29, 11:54 PM | 63.5% | 68.3% | +4.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 29, 10:43 PM | 63.5% | 64.1% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 09:59 PM | 63.5% | 61.0% | −2.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 07:44 PM | 63.5% | 60.7% | −2.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 29, 06:45 PM | 48.5% | 65.4% | +17 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.