Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 30, 2026, 16:27 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 30, 2026, 16:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30T09:06:57.858Z | 63.5% | 52.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:25:13.710Z | 63.5% | 58.3% | -5.2 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:27:02.400Z | 63.5% | 65.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:30:39.530Z | 63.5% | 65.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:37:52.741Z | 63.5% | 79.1% | +15.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T09:54:02.559Z | 63.5% | 74.1% | +10.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:01:57.927Z | 63.5% | 74.1% | +10.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:04:21.110Z | 63.5% | 77.7% | +14.2 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:31:35.394Z | 97.7% | 80.2% | -17.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:32:47.032Z | 97.7% | 84.2% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:36:18.661Z | 97.7% | 84.8% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:39:14.024Z | 97.7% | 85.8% | -11.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:46:24.288Z | 97.7% | 86.5% | -11.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:57:33.490Z | 97.7% | 88.3% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T10:57:42.177Z | 97.7% | 88.3% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:01:11.170Z | 97.7% | 87.5% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:04:49.028Z | 97.7% | 82.7% | -14.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:09:40.593Z | 97.7% | 81.5% | -16.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:10:06.657Z | 97.7% | 81.5% | -16.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:41:09.027Z | 97.7% | 88.2% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:44:47.060Z | 97.7% | 89.6% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:48:18.591Z | 97.7% | 89.0% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:52:16.781Z | 97.7% | 88.9% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T11:56:29.351Z | 97.7% | 86.9% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:04:22.454Z | 97.7% | 89.8% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:08:10.039Z | 97.7% | 87.6% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:13:03.176Z | 97.7% | 86.9% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-09-30T12:20:34.379Z | 97.7% | 87.8% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T13:02:09.201Z | 97.7% | 87.8% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-09-30T15:58:34.576Z | 97.7% | 100.0% | +2.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 03:58 PM | 97.7% | 100.0% | +2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 30, 12:20 PM | 97.7% | 87.8% | −9.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 12:13 PM | 97.7% | 86.9% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 12:08 PM | 97.7% | 87.6% | −10 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 12:04 PM | 97.7% | 89.8% | −7.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 11:56 AM | 97.7% | 86.9% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 11:52 AM | 97.7% | 88.9% | −8.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 30, 11:48 AM | 97.7% | 89.0% | −8.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.