Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
Ends: Aug 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 01:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03T18:46:28.517Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T19:49:14.848Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T20:51:24.964Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T21:56:22.217Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T22:56:54.573Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T00:02:00.238Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T01:04:57.534Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T02:13:34.802Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T03:13:05.025Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T04:17:02.191Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T05:20:52.628Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T06:20:43.272Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T07:26:32.116Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T08:30:03.277Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T09:33:52.886Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T10:39:38.668Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T11:42:13.416Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T12:45:06.937Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T13:47:33.720Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T14:48:45.997Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T15:56:16.518Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T17:04:04.875Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T18:00:52.330Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T19:05:35.643Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T20:10:40.595Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:09:38.976Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:14:02.049Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:15:42.752Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:19:19.625Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:20:39.639Z | 23.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.