Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
Ends: Aug 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 01:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T21:04:12.163Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:09:38.976Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:23:46.874Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:32:00.402Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:37:10.281Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:47:29.977Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:58:40.740Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:08:51.059Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:14:02.049Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:24:13.497Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:34:28.567Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:44:46.986Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:50:00.471Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:17.141Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:10:37.081Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:21:06.946Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:26:13.141Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:37:51.925Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:48:08.930Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:53:36.863Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:03:53.983Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:14:09.565Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:24:24.050Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:29:27.465Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:39:43.149Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:49:54.649Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:00:04.910Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:10:22.309Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:15:33.993Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:20:39.639Z | 23.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.