Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
Ends: Aug 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 01:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T11:51:57.307Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T19:51:43.273Z | 26.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T23:09:41.179Z | 26.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T03:42:03.991Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:14:10.363Z | 27.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:43:44.889Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:17:43.390Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:47:51.518Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:24:25.766Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:47:53.335Z | 10.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:23:31.658Z | 12.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:54:30.166Z | 16.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T20:23:14.329Z | 16.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T00:54:54.173Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T05:26:44.968Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T09:59:26.326Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T14:35:39.252Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T19:02:34.905Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-02T23:36:34.362Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T04:05:18.516Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T08:43:53.054Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T13:08:34.477Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T17:40:48.946Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T22:12:03.972Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T02:45:49.756Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T07:20:43.626Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T11:48:19.654Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T16:22:45.251Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T20:53:44.333Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:20:39.639Z | 23.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.