Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
Ends: Aug 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 24:32 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03T17:59:21.926Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T18:58:09.566Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T20:02:23.543Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T21:09:30.018Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T22:12:03.972Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T23:14:27.471Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T00:21:51.142Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T01:22:31.732Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T02:25:44.092Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T03:29:36.924Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T04:30:53.755Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T05:32:08.719Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T06:36:15.095Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T07:44:37.659Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T08:42:23.144Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T09:47:25.481Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T10:51:10.582Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T11:55:22.821Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T13:00:41.429Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T13:59:46.806Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T15:06:53.605Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T16:11:23.125Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T17:09:44.163Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T18:15:17.092Z | 29.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T19:22:40.332Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T20:22:41.244Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T21:23:46.874Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:29:17.246Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:31:23.322Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:32:14.696Z | 23.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.