Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?
Ends: Oct 25, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 25, 2026, 05:07 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24T04:00:33.058Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T04:53:26.382Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T05:56:43.290Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T06:58:32.633Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T08:01:37.120Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T09:07:30.818Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T10:11:12.198Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T11:10:22.395Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T12:16:12.305Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T13:17:36.061Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T14:46:26.496Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T15:28:07.727Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T16:27:13.306Z | 45.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T17:33:17.982Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T18:36:37.177Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T19:44:45.503Z | 78.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T20:41:31.370Z | 79.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T21:46:59.198Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T22:52:11.818Z | 82.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-24T23:52:09.165Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-25T00:57:14.302Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-25T02:03:44.755Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-25T03:20:54.712Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-25T04:06:34.720Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-25T05:07:18.285Z | 94.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.