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Crypto · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 25?

Ends: Oct 25, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Oct 25, 2026, 05:08 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET UP 94.5%MARX FAIR UP -
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%25%50%75%100%
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Oct 24, 05:13 AMOct 24, 11:12 AMOct 24, 05:10 PMOct 24, 11:09 PMOct 25, 05:08 AM UTC

UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-10-25T00:33:40.598Z92.5%-—
2026-10-25T00:39:05.087Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T00:51:41.471Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T00:57:14.302Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T01:07:20.091Z91.5%-—
2026-10-25T01:15:37.227Z91.5%-—
2026-10-25T01:26:55.172Z92.5%-—
2026-10-25T01:36:25.023Z91.5%-—
2026-10-25T01:45:37.005Z93.0%-—
2026-10-25T01:53:39.360Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T02:03:44.755Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T02:13:21.850Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T02:17:57.725Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T02:31:22.655Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T02:36:30.907Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T02:47:26.336Z95.0%-—
2026-10-25T03:20:54.712Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T03:25:51.630Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T03:33:29.585Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T03:39:27.753Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T03:49:47.420Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T03:57:50.266Z92.5%-—
2026-10-25T04:06:34.720Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T04:16:31.910Z93.0%-—
2026-10-25T04:24:49.955Z93.5%-—
2026-10-25T04:36:03.393Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T04:46:57.243Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T04:52:40.143Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T05:02:55.767Z94.5%-—
2026-10-25T05:08:02.755Z94.5%-—

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

TRADE UP/DOWNCALCULATION STATUSSTRATEGY