Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 01:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T00:19:28.470Z | 38.5% | 45.2% | +6.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:20:38.454Z | 38.5% | 44.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:21:56.236Z | 38.5% | 44.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:23:25.034Z | 38.5% | 39.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:23:37.834Z | 38.5% | 39.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:24:58.956Z | 38.5% | 39.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:28:39.640Z | 38.5% | 37.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:30:36.088Z | 38.5% | 38.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:32:51.918Z | 38.5% | 38.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:34:53.552Z | 38.5% | 39.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:38:37.419Z | 38.5% | 33.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:43:52.186Z | 38.5% | 33.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:44:05.843Z | 38.5% | 33.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:46:44.520Z | 38.5% | 29.8% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:48:39.543Z | 38.5% | 30.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:52:39.159Z | 38.5% | 37.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:54:44.077Z | 38.5% | 36.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:55:23.930Z | 38.5% | 36.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:00:42.328Z | 38.5% | 35.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:02:53.840Z | 38.5% | 37.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:04:44.510Z | 38.5% | 37.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:05:32.874Z | 38.5% | 37.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:06:16.476Z | 38.5% | 37.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:08:41.197Z | 38.5% | 34.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:10:47.859Z | 38.5% | 35.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:13:22.546Z | 38.5% | 37.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:15:52.386Z | 38.5% | 36.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:18:47.279Z | 38.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:20:38.551Z | 38.5% | 38.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:22:39.770Z | 38.5% | 38.8% | +0.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 01:20 AM | 50.0% | 38.8% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 01:18 AM | 50.0% | 39.0% | −11 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 01:15 AM | 50.0% | 36.4% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 01:13 AM | 50.0% | 37.1% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 01:10 AM | 50.0% | 35.7% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 01:08 AM | 50.0% | 34.0% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 01:06 AM | 50.0% | 37.6% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 01:05 AM | 50.0% | 37.6% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.