Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 01:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T01:04:12.229Z | 37.5% | 37.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:04:43.665Z | 36.5% | 37.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:04:44.510Z | 36.5% | 37.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:05:13.686Z | 36.5% | 37.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:05:20.722Z | 36.5% | 37.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:05:32.874Z | 36.5% | 37.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:06:12.488Z | 36.5% | 37.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:06:16.476Z | 36.5% | 37.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:06:39.689Z | 36.5% | 36.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:07:12.233Z | 36.5% | 36.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:08:12.097Z | 36.5% | 34.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:08:41.197Z | 36.5% | 34.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:08:42.297Z | 36.5% | 34.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:09:25.637Z | 36.5% | 34.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:10:12.239Z | 36.5% | 35.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:10:47.859Z | 36.5% | 35.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:11:12.168Z | 36.5% | 35.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:13:02.671Z | 36.5% | 37.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:13:16.756Z | 37.5% | 37.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:13:22.546Z | 37.5% | 37.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:13:34.739Z | 37.5% | 37.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:14:12.174Z | 38.5% | 37.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:15:52.386Z | 38.5% | 36.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:17:14.923Z | 38.5% | 36.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:18:12.971Z | 38.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:18:47.279Z | 38.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:18:49.025Z | 38.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:19:12.127Z | 38.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:20:38.551Z | 38.5% | 38.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T01:22:54.599Z | 38.5% | 38.8% | +0.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 01:20 AM | 38.5% | 38.8% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 01:18 AM | 38.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 01:18 AM | 38.5% | 39.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 01:15 AM | 38.5% | 36.4% | −2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 01:13 AM | 37.5% | 37.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 01:13 AM | 37.5% | 37.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 01:10 AM | 36.5% | 35.7% | −0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 10, 01:08 AM | 36.5% | 34.0% | −2.5 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.