Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?
Ends: Aug 10, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 10, 2026, 24:34 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T23:37:31.021Z | 39.5% | 33.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:40:21.410Z | 39.5% | 33.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:40:30.943Z | 39.5% | 33.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:45:36.456Z | 39.5% | 33.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:47:46.279Z | 39.5% | 34.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:48:33.381Z | 39.5% | 34.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:49:36.070Z | 39.5% | 33.7% | -5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:51:33.357Z | 39.5% | 33.3% | -6.2 pp |
| 2026-08-09T23:55:47.256Z | 39.5% | 32.4% | -7.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:02:41.479Z | 39.5% | 31.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:03:29.933Z | 39.5% | 31.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:04:33.572Z | 39.5% | 32.4% | -7.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:06:42.077Z | 39.5% | 32.3% | -7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:08:35.719Z | 39.5% | 34.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:10:37.581Z | 39.5% | 40.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:13:46.758Z | 39.5% | 50.6% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:13:49.713Z | 39.5% | 50.6% | +11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:16:43.088Z | 39.5% | 44.4% | +4.9 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:19:20.021Z | 39.5% | 45.2% | +5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:19:28.470Z | 39.5% | 45.2% | +5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:20:39.200Z | 39.5% | 44.1% | +4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:21:56.236Z | 39.5% | 44.1% | +4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:23:25.034Z | 39.5% | 39.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:23:37.834Z | 39.5% | 39.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:24:45.757Z | 39.5% | 39.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:28:39.640Z | 39.5% | 37.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:28:50.739Z | 39.5% | 37.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:32:50.688Z | 39.5% | 38.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:32:51.918Z | 39.5% | 38.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-10T00:34:58.849Z | 39.5% | 38.8% | -0.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 12:32 AM | 44.5% | 38.8% | −5.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 12:32 AM | 44.5% | 38.8% | −5.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 12:28 AM | 44.5% | 37.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 12:28 AM | 44.5% | 37.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 12:24 AM | 44.5% | 39.8% | −4.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 12:23 AM | 44.5% | 39.1% | −5.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 12:23 AM | 44.5% | 39.1% | −5.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 10, 12:21 AM | 44.5% | 44.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 9 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 10 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.