Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 11, 2026, 08:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11T05:32:45.688Z | 33.5% | 30.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:36:45.613Z | 33.5% | 34.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:40:48.980Z | 33.5% | 34.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:48:39.259Z | 33.5% | 34.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:52:39.214Z | 33.5% | 34.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:01:41.068Z | 33.5% | 31.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:05:40.686Z | 33.5% | 31.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:09:38.159Z | 33.5% | 33.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:14:43.575Z | 33.5% | 34.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:18:39.314Z | 33.5% | 32.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:26:50.247Z | 33.5% | 30.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:34:39.713Z | 33.5% | 25.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:38:42.473Z | 33.5% | 25.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:47:45.184Z | 33.5% | 26.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:53:40.949Z | 33.5% | 24.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:02:46.910Z | 33.5% | 30.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:09:19.305Z | 33.5% | 29.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:13:48.004Z | 33.5% | 28.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:20:42.734Z | 33.5% | 25.9% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:24:41.699Z | 33.5% | 25.4% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:29:02.413Z | 33.5% | 25.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:35:41.326Z | 33.5% | 30.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:40:24.384Z | 33.5% | 36.6% | +3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:49:40.083Z | 33.5% | 37.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:56:47.466Z | 33.5% | 33.8% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:02:39.586Z | 33.5% | 36.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:06:44.158Z | 33.5% | 36.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:15:46.557Z | 33.5% | 33.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:19:38.737Z | 33.5% | 33.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:21:14.580Z | 33.5% | 33.2% | -0.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 08:19 AM | 50.0% | 33.2% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:15 AM | 50.0% | 33.2% | −17 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:06 AM | 50.0% | 36.2% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:02 AM | 50.0% | 36.0% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:56 AM | 50.0% | 33.8% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:49 AM | 50.0% | 37.0% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:40 AM | 50.0% | 36.6% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:35 AM | 50.0% | 30.0% | −20 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.