Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 11, 2026, 08:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11T07:40:24.384Z | 35.5% | 36.6% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:41:15.319Z | 35.5% | 35.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:41:47.532Z | 35.5% | 35.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:44:20.054Z | 35.5% | 36.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:46:46.124Z | 35.5% | 36.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:49:40.083Z | 35.5% | 37.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:50:14.142Z | 35.5% | 37.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:53:44.804Z | 32.5% | 36.6% | +4.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:53:45.523Z | 32.5% | 36.6% | +4.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:55:21.208Z | 32.5% | 33.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:56:47.466Z | 32.5% | 33.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:59:13.412Z | 32.5% | 34.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:00:31.009Z | 32.5% | 34.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:00:33.304Z | 32.5% | 34.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:02:39.586Z | 34.5% | 36.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:04:13.220Z | 34.5% | 37.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:05:19.598Z | 34.5% | 37.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:06:44.158Z | 34.5% | 36.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:08:39.085Z | 35.5% | 36.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:10:15.899Z | 35.5% | 34.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:10:44.874Z | 35.5% | 34.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:11:12.606Z | 35.5% | 34.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:13:26.170Z | 35.5% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:13:44.100Z | 35.5% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:15:13.867Z | 35.5% | 35.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:17:12.911Z | 35.5% | 34.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:17:43.291Z | 35.5% | 34.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:18:49.018Z | 35.5% | 34.4% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:19:38.737Z | 33.5% | 33.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:21:14.580Z | 33.5% | 33.2% | -0.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 08:19 AM | 35.5% | 33.2% | −2.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:18 AM | 35.5% | 34.4% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:17 AM | 35.5% | 34.4% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:13 AM | 35.5% | 35.4% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:10 AM | 35.5% | 34.8% | −0.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:08 AM | 35.5% | 36.8% | +1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:06 AM | 34.5% | 36.2% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:05 AM | 34.5% | 37.2% | +2.7 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.