Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 11, 2026, 07:46 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11T05:07:38.863Z | 41.5% | 34.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:16:43.062Z | 41.5% | 35.7% | -5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:18:39.605Z | 41.5% | 35.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:22:40.298Z | 41.5% | 30.3% | -11.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:26:47.420Z | 41.5% | 30.4% | -11.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:34:43.896Z | 35.0% | 31.9% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:38:38.896Z | 35.0% | 34.4% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:40:48.980Z | 35.0% | 34.4% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:48:39.259Z | 35.0% | 34.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T05:52:39.214Z | 35.0% | 34.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:01:41.068Z | 35.0% | 31.5% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:05:40.686Z | 35.0% | 31.7% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:09:38.159Z | 35.0% | 33.7% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:12:42.911Z | 35.0% | 34.2% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:18:39.314Z | 35.0% | 32.9% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:24:42.820Z | 35.0% | 31.4% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:32:47.912Z | 35.0% | 26.5% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:36:44.146Z | 35.0% | 25.8% | -9.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:44:46.655Z | 35.0% | 26.4% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:51:43.436Z | 35.0% | 26.5% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:59:55.750Z | 35.0% | 28.7% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:06:43.035Z | 35.0% | 31.6% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:10:42.210Z | 35.0% | 29.7% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:18:40.480Z | 35.0% | 27.1% | -7.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:22:43.501Z | 35.0% | 25.2% | -9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:25:21.146Z | 35.0% | 25.4% | -9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:33:46.026Z | 35.0% | 28.9% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:37:45.162Z | 35.0% | 33.2% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:41:47.532Z | 35.0% | 35.3% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:46:24.533Z | 35.0% | 35.3% | +0.3 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 07:41 AM | 41.5% | 35.3% | −6.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:37 AM | 41.5% | 33.2% | −8.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:33 AM | 41.5% | 28.9% | −13 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:25 AM | 41.5% | 25.4% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:22 AM | 41.5% | 25.2% | −16 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:18 AM | 41.5% | 27.1% | −14 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:10 AM | 41.5% | 29.7% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 07:06 AM | 41.5% | 31.6% | −9.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.