Bitcoin Up or Down on August 21?
Ends: Aug 21, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 21, 2026, 10:02 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T06:42:56.490Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:49:50.315Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:51:58.933Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:55:06.223Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:57:49.999Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:59:44.308Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:59:44.896Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:03:46.952Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:03:47.115Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:08:51.814Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:12:33.978Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:14:51.312Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:19:01.005Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:24:04.611Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:27:00.861Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:33:52.350Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:36:09.075Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:42:45.794Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:42:47.531Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:56:17.444Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:04:44.923Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:24:34.802Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:26:33.531Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:21:54.535Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:24:53.593Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:32:15.644Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:35:05.640Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:47:33.109Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:59:49.445Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:02:22.683Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 09:59 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 09:47 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 09:35 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 09:32 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 09:24 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 09:21 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 08:26 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 08:24 AM | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.