Bitcoin Up or Down on August 21?
Ends: Aug 21, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 21, 2026, 10:27 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T07:52:55.479Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:01:44.939Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:04:44.923Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:19:16.129Z | 97.7% | 100.0% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:21:23.720Z | 97.7% | 100.0% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:26:09.446Z | 97.7% | 100.0% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:26:33.531Z | 97.7% | 100.0% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:52:58.272Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T08:54:48.116Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:19:13.480Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:24:53.593Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:30:25.734Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:32:11.746Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:35:05.640Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:37:56.922Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:42:14.503Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:47:32.099Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:57:56.952Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T09:59:49.445Z | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:07:36.558Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:08:03.570Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:08:04.823Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:12:06.026Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:13:27.604Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:16:06.932Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:22:05.718Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:25:00.555Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:26:57.280Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:27:15.824Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T10:27:22.930Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 10:27 AM | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 10:25 AM | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 10:22 AM | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 10:16 AM | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 10:12 AM | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 10:08 AM | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 10:08 AM | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 21, 09:59 AM | 98.6% | 100.0% | +1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.