Bitcoin Up or Down on August 21?
Ends: Aug 21, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 21, 2026, 07:34 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T05:01:07.578Z | 90.0% | 99.8% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T05:01:21.824Z | 90.0% | 99.8% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T05:03:12.128Z | 90.0% | 99.8% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-21T05:08:05.136Z | 90.0% | 99.9% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T05:08:05.394Z | 90.0% | 99.9% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T05:10:10.242Z | 90.0% | 99.9% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T05:17:46.766Z | 90.0% | 99.9% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-21T05:38:45.831Z | 97.9% | 99.9% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:09:59.992Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:30:18.838Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:34:09.691Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:39:56.926Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:42:56.490Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:47:27.367Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:51:58.933Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:51:59.369Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:57:49.999Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:57:50.420Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T06:59:44.308Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:01:43.647Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:03:46.952Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:03:47.115Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:08:51.814Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:12:33.978Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:14:51.312Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:19:01.005Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:20:58.126Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:27:00.861Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:31:22.415Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T07:34:45.670Z | 97.9% | 100.0% | +2.1 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 07:31 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 07:27 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 07:20 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 07:19 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 07:14 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 07:12 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 07:08 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 21, 07:03 AM | 90.0% | 100.0% | +10.0 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.