Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17?
Ends: Sep 17, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 05:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17T02:39:07.981Z | 73.5% | 71.4% | -2.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:45:38.915Z | 73.5% | 74.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:53:39.814Z | 73.5% | 74.4% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:02:52.034Z | 73.5% | 72.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:04:44.965Z | 73.5% | 72.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:07:24.498Z | 73.5% | 76.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:08:52.206Z | 73.5% | 76.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:09:57.917Z | 73.5% | 75.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:10:00.407Z | 73.5% | 75.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:32:08.001Z | 73.5% | 76.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:32:40.593Z | 73.5% | 76.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:36:10.366Z | 76.5% | 77.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:37:31.247Z | 76.5% | 77.7% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:41:42.935Z | 76.5% | 77.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:00:16.784Z | 76.5% | 74.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:00:34.352Z | 76.5% | 74.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:07:07.325Z | 76.5% | 73.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:09:03.140Z | 76.5% | 73.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:23:09.365Z | 76.5% | 68.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:31:36.442Z | 76.5% | 68.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:33:58.156Z | 76.5% | 67.8% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:36:04.749Z | 76.5% | 67.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:39:08.304Z | 81.5% | 69.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:42:06.038Z | 81.5% | 72.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:45:12.522Z | 81.5% | 73.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:48:04.610Z | 81.5% | 73.1% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:51:15.529Z | 81.5% | 77.3% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:54:02.156Z | 81.5% | 78.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:57:36.776Z | 81.5% | 77.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-09-17T05:05:13.206Z | 81.5% | 77.1% | -4.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 04:57 AM | 76.5% | 77.1% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:54 AM | 76.5% | 78.3% | +1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:51 AM | 76.5% | 77.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:48 AM | 76.5% | 73.1% | −3.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 17, 04:45 AM | 76.5% | 73.8% | −2.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:42 AM | 76.5% | 72.4% | −4.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 17, 04:39 AM | 76.5% | 69.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 17, 04:36 AM | 76.5% | 67.0% | −9.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.