Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17?
Ends: Sep 17, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 05:06 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17T04:09:03.140Z | 76.5% | 73.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:14:57.240Z | 74.5% | 73.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:20:53.579Z | 70.5% | 68.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:23:09.365Z | 70.5% | 68.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:28:49.396Z | 70.5% | 68.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:31:35.301Z | 68.5% | 68.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:31:36.442Z | 68.5% | 68.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:31:42.364Z | 68.5% | 68.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:33:43.293Z | 68.5% | 67.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:33:58.156Z | 68.5% | 67.8% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:36:04.749Z | 68.5% | 67.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:38:45.472Z | 68.5% | 69.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:39:08.304Z | 68.5% | 69.9% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:40:42.713Z | 72.5% | 72.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:42:06.038Z | 72.5% | 72.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:42:42.574Z | 72.5% | 72.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:44:45.583Z | 72.5% | 73.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:45:12.522Z | 72.5% | 73.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:46:01.396Z | 72.5% | 73.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:48:04.610Z | 76.5% | 73.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:50:42.671Z | 76.5% | 77.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:51:15.529Z | 76.5% | 77.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:51:55.901Z | 76.5% | 77.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:53:43.103Z | 76.5% | 78.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:54:02.156Z | 76.5% | 78.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:55:55.790Z | 79.5% | 77.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:57:36.776Z | 79.5% | 77.1% | -2.4 pp |
| 2026-09-17T05:02:41.007Z | 81.5% | 79.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T05:04:30.960Z | 81.5% | 79.3% | -2.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T05:06:28.237Z | 81.5% | 79.3% | -2.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 05:04 AM | 81.5% | 79.3% | −2.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:57 AM | 79.5% | 77.1% | −2.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:54 AM | 76.5% | 78.3% | +1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:51 AM | 76.5% | 77.3% | +0.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:48 AM | 76.5% | 73.1% | −3.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Sep 17, 04:46 AM | 72.5% | 73.8% | +1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:45 AM | 72.5% | 73.8% | +1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 17, 04:42 AM | 72.5% | 72.4% | −0.1 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.