Bitcoin Up or Down on September 17?
Ends: Sep 17, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 04:21 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17T01:42:00.385Z | 68.5% | 76.8% | +8.3 pp |
| 2026-09-17T01:46:54.249Z | 68.5% | 77.1% | +8.6 pp |
| 2026-09-17T01:58:25.117Z | 68.5% | 71.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T01:58:32.014Z | 68.5% | 71.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:01:20.483Z | 68.5% | 71.4% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:04:13.209Z | 68.5% | 70.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:07:11.192Z | 68.5% | 71.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:12:13.704Z | 74.5% | 66.9% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:30:03.569Z | 74.5% | 65.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:32:55.722Z | 74.5% | 65.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:33:57.621Z | 74.5% | 65.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:35:56.926Z | 74.5% | 67.4% | -7.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:39:07.981Z | 74.5% | 71.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:45:38.915Z | 74.5% | 74.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:53:39.814Z | 74.5% | 74.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-17T02:56:54.646Z | 74.5% | 71.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:04:44.965Z | 74.5% | 72.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:07:24.498Z | 74.5% | 76.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:08:52.206Z | 74.5% | 76.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:09:57.917Z | 74.5% | 75.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:10:00.407Z | 74.5% | 75.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:32:40.593Z | 74.5% | 76.2% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:35:17.298Z | 74.5% | 77.7% | +3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:36:10.366Z | 74.5% | 77.7% | +3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:37:31.247Z | 74.5% | 77.7% | +3.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T03:41:42.935Z | 74.5% | 77.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:00:16.784Z | 74.5% | 74.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:00:34.352Z | 74.5% | 74.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:09:03.140Z | 74.5% | 73.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-09-17T04:21:38.170Z | 74.5% | 73.0% | -1.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 04:09 AM | 68.5% | 73.0% | +4.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 17, 04:00 AM | 68.5% | 74.7% | +6.2 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 17, 04:00 AM | 68.5% | 74.7% | +6.2 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 17, 03:41 AM | 68.5% | 77.5% | +9.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 17, 03:37 AM | 68.5% | 77.7% | +9.2 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 17, 03:36 AM | 68.5% | 77.7% | +9.2 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 17, 03:35 AM | 68.5% | 77.7% | +9.2 pp | BUY UP |
| Sep 17, 03:32 AM | 68.5% | 76.2% | +7.7 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.