Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 05:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T01:22:42.833Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:27:42.510Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:37:24.657Z | 53.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:41:42.445Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:50:58.447Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:59:45.413Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:06:11.678Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:12:09.083Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:18:53.391Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:23:55.480Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:29:08.507Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:43:45.816Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:48:48.212Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:56:47.884Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:02:43.802Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:12:42.740Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:17:42.698Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:22:52.396Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:30:44.192Z | 64.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:39:46.009Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:01:43.348Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:08:22.103Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:20:07.615Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:37:05.625Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:44:44.863Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:51:01.997Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:56:42.817Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:00:46.620Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:05:45.806Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:05:46.149Z | 54.5% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.