Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 05:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T02:05:06.716Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:09:31.468Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:15:43.017Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:18:53.391Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:23:55.480Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:28:08.304Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:35:47.697Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:44:45.505Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:49:55.343Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:55:43.432Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:59:42.656Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:06:50.946Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:14:45.071Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:17:42.698Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:22:02.544Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:30:08.551Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:36:43.508Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:44:52.659Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:01:43.348Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:08:22.103Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:14:46.893Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:25:46.752Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:41:47.659Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:44:44.863Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:49:53.864Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:54:43.418Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:58:43.941Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:01:44.372Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:05:45.806Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:05:46.149Z | 54.5% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.