Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 05:05 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T04:07:52.604Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:08:22.103Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:09:51.120Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:13:44.658Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:18:51.343Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:20:07.615Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:25:40.525Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:25:46.752Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:26:43.970Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:37:05.625Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:41:47.659Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:42:42.723Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:43:44.016Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:46:44.387Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:47:43.856Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:48:50.627Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:49:53.864Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:52:45.450Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:53:51.908Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:54:43.418Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:55:45.875Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:56:42.817Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:58:43.941Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:59:44.943Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:00:46.620Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:01:44.372Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:04:19.580Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:04:58.520Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:05:45.806Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:05:46.149Z | 54.5% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.