Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 04:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T00:23:43.931Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:36:53.464Z | 45.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:40:42.363Z | 45.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:52:50.364Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:10:34.112Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:13:43.874Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:23:44.302Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:27:42.510Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:37:24.657Z | 53.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:41:42.445Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:50:58.447Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:58:43.281Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:06:11.678Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:09:59.661Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:16:42.930Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:23:02.899Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:26:47.145Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:38:52.209Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:46:42.650Z | 64.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:53:47.879Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:59:02.012Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:06:50.946Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:14:45.071Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:19:54.534Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:23:46.955Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:36:43.508Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T03:44:52.659Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:02:42.997Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:09:51.120Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:11:21.612Z | 60.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 29 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 30 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.