Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 9, 2026, 22:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 9, 2026, 19:06 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
100 THIEVES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09T16:44:27.727Z | 76.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T16:49:36.944Z | 30.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T16:54:40.211Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T16:59:58.768Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:05:03.806Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:10:10.406Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:15:21.569Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:20:31.091Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:25:35.366Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:30:36.289Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:35:45.778Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:40:50.754Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:45:54.824Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:51:05.131Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T17:56:06.741Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:01:11.110Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:06:15.216Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:11:22.773Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:16:31.831Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:21:40.545Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:27:59.021Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:33:05.793Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:38:08.556Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:43:45.142Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:48:52.226Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:53:54.201Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T18:58:59.104Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-09T19:04:00.308Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between 100 Thieves and 1WIN in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win Map 1 against 1WIN. This market will resolve to "1WIN" if 1WIN win Map 1 against 100 Thieves. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.