Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Ends: Jan 1, 2028, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 28, 2026, 16:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28T12:48:08.163Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T12:53:31.590Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T12:59:05.864Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:04:11.196Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:09:20.204Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:14:59.765Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:45:20.047Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T13:52:00.620Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:07:28.858Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:12:37.017Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:17:47.676Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:23:02.247Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:28:09.504Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:33:54.042Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:39:03.123Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T14:45:02.711Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:02:07.410Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:07:54.983Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:13:06.505Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:18:21.576Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:23:31.757Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:28:38.502Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:33:46.404Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:38:54.936Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:46:14.240Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T15:52:27.436Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:07:08.362Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:12:16.960Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:17:22.164Z | 70.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-28T16:23:25.562Z | 70.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.